Prospect Ramblings: Who has the picks for offer sheets?

by Hayden Soboleski on June 11, 2017

Which teams actually have the goods to make the league's nastiest moves?

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Every year, some of the most intriguing off-season rumors involve offer sheets. We're only a few years removed from a top defenceman in Dougie Hamilton getting traded because of the risk of one. Cornerstone players like Ryan O'Reilly see their relationships change in an instant because of one. Shea Weber became a very, very rich man because of one. Sure it's been awhile since a player has truly been stolen, and the old-school managerial style seen around the league makes it taboo, but the possibiliy for huge drama makes this an exciting topic of discussion. So, let's take a look at which teams actually have the draft picks to ante up should they take the low road.

 

Here is the official offer sheet compensation table for 2017:

The most important thing to remember here is that these aren't just ANY draft picks - they must belong to the team making the offer. That is, it doesn't matter that Arizona has 2 first-round picks in the 2017 draft, if they made a $10M offer, they would be giving up their own first-round pick for the next 4 years.

 

So, which team have dealt themselves out of these possibilities? Based on the assumption that teams' list of picks in the upcoming drafts stays as they are right now, I made the following table that I hope comes in handy:

 Offer amount  Teams with necessary picks
 <  $1.296M     All
  $1.296M   -  $1.963M     Anaheim, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Edmonton, LA, Minnesota, Montreal, Nashville, NYI, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Winnipeg
 $1.963M  -  $3.925M    All except Boston, Columbus, Edmonton, Minnesota, NYR, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Washingston
 $3.925M  -  $5.889M    Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Edmonton, LA, Montreal, Nashville, NYI, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Winnipeg
 $5.889M   -  $7.852M    Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas, LA, Montreal, Nashville, NYI, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Winnipeg
 $7.852M  -  $9.815M    Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas, LA, Montreal, Nashville, NYI, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Winnipeg
 >  $9.815M    All except Minnesota, Washington, Anaheim

 

As you can see, most teams have left themselves quite a bit of wiggle room to cause some drama should they see someone they like. 

 

It would be mean to provide all that information without the main course - the RFAs actually at risk of the above possible offers. Here is a list of players who would warrant a draft-pick repayment should another team get greedy:

 

One quick look shows you how good of a year this is for RFAs. Unfortunately GMs will likely be too afraid of retaliation to make a splash, but if it does happen there's a chance to land genuine franchise cornerstones. Fingers crossed that in all of the upcoming excitement, someone's trigger finger gets loose.

 

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Thanks to capfriendly.com for their handy draft table tool which let me compile the above information.

 

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Please keep our fearless leader, the legedary Dobber himself, in your thoughts as he battles through tough medical news. We all belive 100% that he will beat this and come out stronger than ever. Its thanks to him that us hockey nuts have such great content every day and even more of a love for this amazing sport. 

 

Hayden Soboleski

@soboleskih